jneurohr's blog

Among other things, Joan talked about Colorado politics, redistricting and the importance of the work America Votes partners are doing in Colorado and across the country.

Labor Day weekend and the "traditional campaign season" have arrived and the national landscape is as rough, if not rougher, than before Washington went on August vacation. The overall environment clearly must improve over the next 61 days - we'll do it with consistent messages reminding voters of the clear choice in this election, that their deep concerns are the result of conservatives' failed policies, and that our opponents are outright extremists whose plan to privatize Social Security is the tip of the iceberg.

However, the most important dynamic in this election may not be the national mood or generic ballot, but the specific political environments in a number of key states. Look at the heavy concentration of defeated Democrats and Republicans in a handful of states in 1994 and 2006, the two "wave" mid-term elections in the last 20 years. In midterms, when things went bad nationally, they went really, really bad in a few states.

In the 1994 landslide, seven states accounted for over half of all losses by House Democratic incumbents (CA, GA, IN, NC, OH, TX and WA - 19 of 34 losses). In the 2006 election that won back a Democratic majority, 60 percent of Republican incumbent losses were in just five states (CT, IN, NH, NY and PA - 13 of 22 losses). Importantly, Republicans lost races for governor in Pennsylvania, New York and New Hampshire four years ago by an average of 35 points.

How is this history relevant to our 2010 strategy? In the most recent Cook Political rankings, half of the Democratic-held House seats rated as "Toss Up" were concentrated in seven states (FL, IL, MI, NH, OH, PA and VA - 18 of 37 seats). All of these states are also top redistricting control priorities in the November election. Cook rates gubernatorial races in FL, IL, OH and PA as "Toss-Ups" and the MI and NH legislatures are key redistricting control targets. (Virginia's races for governor and legislature were in 2009).

America Votes' strategy this year puts the highest priority on the states and districts where vital races are layered, up and down the ballot. America Votes' Redistricting Control Project and many of our coalition partners' programs represent a firewall to fight back on the ground. It's a plan designed for tough environments like this one - find the turf we must defend and build programs to forcefully beat back the rising tide.

Bottom line: there of course must be improvement in the national landscape or we're in for an election as bad as 1994 was for us and 2006 was for them. But final margins in Congress in 2011, perhaps through 2012, and other priorities may hinge upon our success over the next 61 days in winning back swing voters and mobilizing progressives in places like Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH) and Delaware County, PA.

Speaking specifically about the process of redistricting, Joan commented, "When it [redistricting] is done correctly, it should maximize the impact of one man one vote, you redistrict to make sure no congressional district is larger than another... It also groups people with common interest-like belonging to a rural or agricultural area."

As a former State Senator, Joan has firsthand experience with the redistricting process. While a state senator, Joan had a district that "spanned the continental divide." She said that she had to make sure that both parts of her district received a representative that could serve their needs. In 2001, the State Senante couldn't agree with the Republican House and the governor at the time, so they went to court. Then in 2003, there was a second attempt to redistrict CO that gave Joan even more insight into how the redistricting process worked and impacted citizens.

Describing how redistricting can effect working citizens, Joan said, "If working people get put into a district that will be represented by someone who can never represent their interest, then they will not be able to effectively lobby for themselves and they will be a minority in that district."

Listen to the full interview here.

A new poll from the Minneapolis Star Tribune
puts all three Democratic candidates ahead of presumptive Republican
nominee Tom Emmer in the race to replace Tim Pawlenty as governor. By a 40-30-13 margin, former US Senator Mark Dayton holds the most commanding lead over Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. Democratic-Farm Labor and EMILYs List endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson-Kelliher holds a 38-29-13 lead, while Matt Etenza holds a 36-31-15 lead.

The poll comes as Louis Jacobson writes for Stateline.org that despite 2010 being the toughest election year for Democrats since 1994, the DFL has a chance to take back the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1986.

In the most recent polling, Republican candidate for PA governor, Pat Toomey, is leading Democratic candidate, Joe Sestak, by six points-45 % to 39%.Sestak beat Senator Arlen Specter in the tough PA primary early this summer. He’s a fighter and will be able to take those six points in the upcoming weeks to the election.

On one hand, Democratic-Farm Labor endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher has raised $981K for the entire year thus far. On the other hand, MN Forward, a conservative “pro-business conduit” created by the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce has raised more than $1M in less than one month. How did MN Forward raise so much money? On the backs of 13 corporations including Kraft Foods, Target, and Best Buy.

As Pat Doyle writes in a feature for the Minneapolis Star Tribune, although the companies have told employees they are not endorsing or opposing specific candidates, their contributions have allowed MN Forward to spend $195,000 in ads support of GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer.

Tomorrow marks another round of primaries as voters in Michigan, Missouri, and Kansas head to the polls to narrow select their party’s candidate. Tim Sahd for Hotline On Call lists the 12 most competitive House primaries that will take place tomorrow, along with what makes them all newsworthy here. What makes the story newsworthy for America Votes is that of the 12 races Sahd selected, seven of races are in Michigan.

Of the 12, some noteworthy races include Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick trying to become the fourth House incumbent to lose a re-election bid in the primary in MI-13, Sander Levin outraising his primary opponent by a $1.1M-$32K margin, and Reps. Gary Peters, Mark Schauer and state Rep. Gary McDowell finding out their Republican opponent in what promise to be tough campaigns.

Not in the Florida governor race. Adam Smith reports for the St. Petersburg Times the hatred between Jeff Greene and Kendrick Meek that was apparent at the Sunday debate.

Greene said, "He's a career politician, involved in some corruption scandals, taking special interest money. … I'm an outsider. My whole life I've been in the business world, I've created jobs. … I'm not going to take a penny of special interest money."

Meek responded: "It's ridiculous that someone would even question my ethics when he has so many issues himself."

They continued: "I'm ahead in the polls," Greene noted. "So who is he going to support? Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio?"

"I'm not going to support Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio, because I'm going to be the nominee, Jeff,'' snapped Meek, noting that Greene ran for Congress as a Republican in 1982 and recently claimed not to remember whether he'd voted for Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter for president.

The two candidates sound like high school kids running for student council. The debate will be televised tonight.

Over the past few weeks, there has been a definite increase in the attention that the media has given to redistricting, and the effects it may have on this year's elections.  One of the latest stories comes from David Bass for The American Spectator, highlighting the potential pitfalls of a poor showing from the Democrats this year:

"By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade - a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections. ... With about a dozen of the nation's state legislatures closely split along partisan lines and 18 governor's races in the "toss up" category this year, big changes could be in store"

Read the full article here.

New Mexico’s campaign finance laws will change soon-after the Modterm election. Until then, the candidates running to governor are taking advantage of the current law.