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The Worst Case Scenario

Over the past few weeks, there has been a definite increase in the attention that the media has given to redistricting, and the effects it may have on this year's elections.  One of the latest stories comes from David Bass for The American Spectator, highlighting the potential pitfalls of a poor showing from the Democrats this year:

"By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade - a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections. ... With about a dozen of the nation's state legislatures closely split along partisan lines and 18 governor's races in the "toss up" category this year, big changes could be in store"

Read the full article here.

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New Mexico Race Gives Big Donors Last Splash

New Mexico’s campaign finance laws will change soon-after the Modterm election. Until then, the candidates running to governor are taking advantage of the current law.

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In Nevada, a candidate for secretary of state has been charged with battery.

According to an article in the Nevada Appeal, Rob Lauer has been charged with assaulting a woman with multiple sclerosis. This Republican is running for Secretary of State of Nevada. Good luck with that one.

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Lansing Mayor Surging in Democratic Primary

After a grueling primary campaign, it looks like Democrats have finally found a gubernatorial front-runner just days before the primary. A Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-Channel 7 poll has shown Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero has taken an eight point lead over Secretary of State Andy Dillon over registered voters and a 12 point lead over likely voters.

In a state crippled by the recession, Bernero has won over many undecided voters on the strength of the Lansing economy, which in turn has translated into endorsements from several unions such as the AFL-CIO, UAW, AFSCME, American Federation of Teachers Michigan and UFCW. Bernero also leads Dillon among pro-choice voters, and he has secured the endorsements from high-profile environmental groups including the Sierra Club, Clean Water Action, and the Michigan League of Conservation Voters. Put all three groups together and you get three of the biggest constituencies of the Democratic base and a front runner in the Democratic Michigan gubernatorial primary.

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What Happens In Vegas, Stays In Vegas… Except This

America Votes intern extraordinare, Alicia spent time last week at the Netroots Nation conference in Las Vegas.  Alicia was kind enough to share some of the experience with us on the blog.

I have just returned from an epic trip to Las Vegas, NV! Usually when talking about a Vegas trip, I would stop here. But, while in Vegas this time, I attended Netroots Nation 2010. The conference, which lasted from July 22 to July 25, was the perfect forum for progressives to learn, discuss, experience, debate, and prepare for the upcoming elections this November.

Since redistricting is one of our main focuses here at America Votes, I want to share with you some relevant things I learned at Netroots. Specifically, I took in the Redistricting Panel, which featured State Senator Steven Horsford, a DLCC Board Member and the Majority Leader of the Nevada Senate, Executive Director Bill Burke of the Foundation for the Future, and Michael Sargeant, Executive Director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The panel provided important information about redistricting and went into depth about the importance of investing resources into this process. The full panel can be viewed here.

This panel has led to more discussion about redistricting. Paul Rosenberg at Open Left discussed his thoughts on the panel and what he thinks are the most important points on the redistricting subject for Democrats in the 2010 election.

I am very glad this successful panel was held at Netroots. Redistricting is an extremely important issue that absolutely needs to be picked up by the blogger community. Netroots was the perfect catalyst.

In addition to the redistricting, there were of course fantastic keynote speakers, fun social events, and a lot of excitement. The rest of what happened in Vegas, though, stays in Vegas.

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Granite State Congressional Races Heating Up

While the media has been playing up the doom and gloom for Democrats this election season, a new set of polling data from the University of New Hampshire has things looking up for the majority party in New Hampshire. As Steve Peoples writes for CQ Politics, in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Carol Shea-Porter has quietly taken a small 44%-39% lead over former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. As UNH pollster Andy Smith explains, she’s done so through “improved favorability ratings and her opponents' inability to raise their profiles during the summer.”

While New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District seems like the most likely pick-up for Republicans, it appears the race might be getting closer than the numbers suggest. Currently, the same UNH poll shows former Rep. Charlie Bass leading both Katrina Swett and Ann McLane-Kuster by about 17 points. However, Peoples notes that since entering the race in February, Bass’ net favorability ratings have dropped 25 points. And with about 23% of voters still undecided, there will be room for the Democratic candidate to make up ground.

Finally, if Swett and McLane-Kuster need any inspiration in making up ground, they need to look no further than the candidate they are looking to replace in the House. Paul Hodes, the current representative of New Hampshire’s 2nd district has closed the gap in his Senate bid. A Public Policy Polling release showed Hodes trailing ex-Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by just three points. While Hodes still has work to do, this poll comes less than three months after the Sarah Palin-endorsed Ayotte had a 15 point lead over Rep. Hodes.

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Introducing America Votes on Facebook!

Today, we'd like to introduce you to our brand new, redesigned America Votes Facebook page! Our Facebook Page will be another outlet you can use to stay up to date on all things America Votes. As the 2010 election season heats up, we'll be posting photos, videos, links, tweets, and more to the page highlighting the exciting work that America Votes and our partner organizations are doing to elect and preserve our progressive majorities across the country.

To follow America Votes on Facebook, follow this link, and click the "Like" button at the top of the page to receive the latest updates from us. You can also follow us on Twitter at @AmericaVotes. And if social media isn't your thing, be sure to check back here at our website to stay up to date on all things America Votes.

 

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What’s at Stake in Ohio House

Jim Provance wrote a great article for the Toledo Blade highlighting how competitive the Ohio House of Representatives will be, and how tough it will be for Democrats to maintain their 53-46 majority. What the article doesn’t mention is that the reason it is so important for Dems to retain their legislative majority (and re-elect Ted Strickland) is that the House will play a very important role in the redistricting process, one that will almost certainly eliminate one to two Congressional seats from the Ohio delegation. It is just another reminder why down ballot races will prove to be so important this November.

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New Hampshire to Sarah Palin: Mind Your Own Business!

Sarah Palin recently endorsed GOP Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte as one of her “Mama Grizzlies.” While her endorsement may help Ayotte secure the GOP nomination, the New Hampshire Union Leader was less than impressed. Publisher Joseph W. McQuaid wrote a front page, above-the-fold editorial arguing that:

Gov. Palin isn't making these endorsements because, as she claims, she has spent time in New Hampshire and thus knows that the people here are a lot like Alaskans. She spent a few hours here on one day during the 2008 Presidential election. That's still more time than she spent getting to know Ayotte, but it takes quite a bit longer to know New Hampshire.

The New Hampshire primary is September 14th.

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Former AV President Martin Frost on Redistricting

In today's Politico, former President of America Votes and former Representative Martin Frost (D-TX) writes about the importance of down-ballot races in November to the redistricting process:

Most big prizefights have an "undercard" - bouts between lesser-known opponents that precede the main event. The undercard in the 2010 elections is the battle for control of state legislatures - which could determine how congressional lines are drawn for the next decade.

Both parties know these races are a priority and are pouring resources into key battleground states. Republicans, for example, have a chance to make gains in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Democrats could make gains in Texas.

A few legislative seats here, a few legislative seats there will decide which party controls one or both chambers of the legislatures, which will be responsible the following year for mapping districts of their state congressional delegations...

Read the full piece here.

 

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