Granite State Congressional Races Heating Up

While the media has been playing up the doom and gloom for Democrats this election season, a new set of polling data from the University of New Hampshire has things looking up for the majority party in New Hampshire. As Steve Peoples writes for CQ Politics, in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Carol Shea-Porter has quietly taken a small 44%-39% lead over former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. As UNH pollster Andy Smith explains, she’s done so through “improved favorability ratings and her opponents' inability to raise their profiles during the summer.”

While New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District seems like the most likely pick-up for Republicans, it appears the race might be getting closer than the numbers suggest. Currently, the same UNH poll shows former Rep. Charlie Bass leading both Katrina Swett and Ann McLane-Kuster by about 17 points. However, Peoples notes that since entering the race in February, Bass’ net favorability ratings have dropped 25 points. And with about 23% of voters still undecided, there will be room for the Democratic candidate to make up ground.

Finally, if Swett and McLane-Kuster need any inspiration in making up ground, they need to look no further than the candidate they are looking to replace in the House. Paul Hodes, the current representative of New Hampshire’s 2nd district has closed the gap in his Senate bid. A Public Policy Polling release showed Hodes trailing ex-Attorney General Kelly Ayotte by just three points. While Hodes still has work to do, this poll comes less than three months after the Sarah Palin-endorsed Ayotte had a 15 point lead over Rep. Hodes.