Election Update from Executive Director Greg Speed

Labor Day weekend and the "traditional campaign season" have arrived and the national landscape is as rough, if not rougher, than before Washington went on August vacation. The overall environment clearly must improve over the next 61 days - we'll do it with consistent messages reminding voters of the clear choice in this election, that their deep concerns are the result of conservatives' failed policies, and that our opponents are outright extremists whose plan to privatize Social Security is the tip of the iceberg.

However, the most important dynamic in this election may not be the national mood or generic ballot, but the specific political environments in a number of key states. Look at the heavy concentration of defeated Democrats and Republicans in a handful of states in 1994 and 2006, the two "wave" mid-term elections in the last 20 years. In midterms, when things went bad nationally, they went really, really bad in a few states.

In the 1994 landslide, seven states accounted for over half of all losses by House Democratic incumbents (CA, GA, IN, NC, OH, TX and WA - 19 of 34 losses). In the 2006 election that won back a Democratic majority, 60 percent of Republican incumbent losses were in just five states (CT, IN, NH, NY and PA - 13 of 22 losses). Importantly, Republicans lost races for governor in Pennsylvania, New York and New Hampshire four years ago by an average of 35 points.

How is this history relevant to our 2010 strategy? In the most recent Cook Political rankings, half of the Democratic-held House seats rated as "Toss Up" were concentrated in seven states (FL, IL, MI, NH, OH, PA and VA - 18 of 37 seats). All of these states are also top redistricting control priorities in the November election. Cook rates gubernatorial races in FL, IL, OH and PA as "Toss-Ups" and the MI and NH legislatures are key redistricting control targets. (Virginia's races for governor and legislature were in 2009).

America Votes' strategy this year puts the highest priority on the states and districts where vital races are layered, up and down the ballot. America Votes' Redistricting Control Project and many of our coalition partners' programs represent a firewall to fight back on the ground. It's a plan designed for tough environments like this one - find the turf we must defend and build programs to forcefully beat back the rising tide.

Bottom line: there of course must be improvement in the national landscape or we're in for an election as bad as 1994 was for us and 2006 was for them. But final margins in Congress in 2011, perhaps through 2012, and other priorities may hinge upon our success over the next 61 days in winning back swing voters and mobilizing progressives in places like Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH) and Delaware County, PA.