Battle for the Senate: Outlook for the Democrats in 2010
CQ Politics
As the Democrats prepare to defend their newly robust Senate majority in the 2010 elections, it would be an understatement to say that New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez has a tough act to follow as the new chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).
Charles E. Schumer , who is up for a third term in New York in the upcoming elections, headed the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm during a 2006 campaign that produced a six-seat gain and a narrow majority for the party, and a 2008 campaign that expanded the party’s edge by a whopping gain of at least seven seats, with the cliffhanger Minnesota contest between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic entertainer Al Franken still undecided.
Menendez’ skills as a national Democratic campaign general will be quickly tested. The Democrats go into the 2010 round without their most effective organizing tool from the past two election cycles: the unpopularity of Republican George W. Bush during his second term as president.
They will, for at least the next two years, have complete control of the federal government with Barack Obama in the White House and big majorities in both chambers of Congress — so they will thrive in 2010 if most voters see them as making progress on the many problems looming over the nation, but will take most of the blame if the public sees them as failing on Obama’s campaign theme of “change.”
Operationally, Menendez should have little trouble replicating Schumer’s success at raising money for Democratic campaigns, as campaign funds tend to flow to the party in power. The perception that the Democrats are on an ascendancy should continue to bolster party efforts to recruit strong candidates to challenge for Republican-held seats, and persuade entrenched Democratic incumbents to hang in there for at least one more term.
But Menendez and his fellow Democrats do not have the big advantage they enjoyed this year when it comes to the 2010 Senate “playing field.” In 2008, the Republicans had to try to fight through a toxic political atmosphere while defending 23 of the own seats, compared to only 12 seats for the Democrats (all successfully defended). In 2010, the imbalance is much slighter, with 19 Republican seats and 17 Democratic seats expected to be in play.
The Democrats also will have to defend three of their seats without the powerhouse incumbents who were elected the last time those seats were up — all the result of Obama’s White House win.
Obama has already vacated his own Senate seat in Illinois, which almost certainly will be defended in the regularly scheduled 2010 election by the interim replacement to be appointed by Democratic Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich .
The same is true of the anticipated New York special election for the final two terms of the term to which Secretary of State-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton was elected in 2006.
There also will be a special election in Delaware for the final four years of the term that Democrat Joseph R. Biden Jr. won this year even as he was elected vice president on Obama’s ticket. Ted Kaufman, a longtime Biden associate, will be his interim replacement, but he has clarified that he won’t be a candidate in the 2010 special — a contest in which the senator’s son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, is expected to run after he returns from a tour of duty in Iraq with the state’s Army National Guard.
A roundup of the 17 contests for Democratic seats in 2010 follows, in state-alphabetical order.
Arkansas
Incumbent: Blanche Lincoln (first elected 1998)
2004 Senate Contest: Lincoln 55.8 percent, Jim Holt (R) 44.2 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: John McCain (R) 58.8 percent, Barack Obama (D) 38.8 percent,
2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 79.4 percent, Rebekah Kennedy (Green) 20.6 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $683,822
Arkansas is something of a political paradox. After voting twice in the 1990s to elect Democratic favorite son Bill Clinton as president, the state has morphed into a Republican presidential stronghold, giving McCain a landslide win in 2008. Yet overall, Arkansas is perhaps the least Republican of Southern states, and the GOP didn’t even field a candidate against Democratic Senate incumbent Pryor in 2008. That suggests a favorable 2010 outlook for Lincoln, whose image as a center-right Democrat has been her ticket to political success. A challenge by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee would produce a “battle of titans,” but Huckabee appears focused on a possible 2012 White House bid after making an impact as a candidate for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Potential Republican Senate candidates include investment banker Patrick “Rick” Calhoun; Tom Cotton, a Harvard Law graduate who served in Iraq as an Army Ranger; and J. French Hill, a bank chairman and former U.S. Treasury official.
California
Incumbent: Barbara Boxer (first elected 1992)
2004 Senate Contest: Boxer 57.7 percent, Bill Jones (R) 37.8 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 61.1 percent, McCain 37.1 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 59.4 percent, Richard “Dick” Mountjoy 35.0 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $3,631,685
Though California long was a partisan battleground, the deep Democratic blue hue of today’s politics in the nation’s most populous state is underscored by Obama’s whopping 2008 landslide — the highest vote share in the state for a Democratic presidential candidate since incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt drew 67 percent in 1936. Boxer’s image as an outspoken liberal has held her approval ratings down somewhat, and Republicans think she could be vulnerable in the right political environment. Their dream candidate is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger , the longtime movie star, who cannot seek re-election as governor because of the state’s term limit. But he has given no indication he might challenge Boxer, and his moderate views, particularly on social, energy and environmental issues, make him one Republican to whom Obama may target his bipartisan outreach efforts. The GOP’s bench of potential candidates is otherwise thin, though conservative state Rep. Chuck DeVore announced just a week after Election Day 2008 that he would seek to challenge Boxer.
Colorado
Incumbent: Ken Salazar (first elected 2004)
2004 Senate Contest: Salazar 51.3 percent, Pete Coors (R) 46.5 percent (Democratic takeover)
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 53.5 percent, McCain 44.9 percent
2008 Senate Race Result: Mark Udall (D) 52.8 percent, Bob Schaffer (R) 42.5 percent (Democratic takeover)
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,831,206
No Democrat has been re-elected senator in Colorado since 1980, when Gary Hart won his second and final term. But Salazar appears to be in good position to be the next. A member of a deeply rooted and politically active ranching family — his brother John is entering his third term representing the 3rd Congressional District — Salazar has maintained an image as a centrist Western Democrat that he accents by wearing a cowboy hat during public appearances and TV interviews. He won two terms as state Attorney General before his 2004 win for the seat left open by the retirement of Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell. That victory helped start a state Democratic trend that culminated with the comfortable 2008 victories by Obama for president and House veteran Udall for the state’s other Senate seat, left open by the retirement of Republican Wayne Allard . Republicans will try to recruit a strong challenger to Salazar, but the field is uncertain at this early point.
Connecticut
Incumbent: Christopher J. Dodd (first elected 1980)
2004 Senate Contest: Dodd 66.4 percent, Jack Orchulli (R) 32.1 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 60.7 percent, McCain 38.1 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I) 49.7 percent, Ned Lamont (D) 39.7 percent, Alan Schlesinger (R) 9.6 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $567,934
Dodd, who gave an early endorsement to Obama after his own bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination quickly failed, received some media attention after Obama’s election as a possible candidate for nomination as secretary of state. Obama instead picked Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of neighboring New York, his chief rival through the nominating campaign. But Dodd — whose appointment to Obama’s Cabinet would have allowed Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell to appoint his replacement — will still have a key role to play in steering Obama’s legislative agenda, given his seniority on committees dealing with issues such as foreign relations, banking, housing, health care and education. First elected to the Senate at age 36, he now appears very likely to pursue a sixth Senate term, and both his own strong electoral track record and the Democrats’ big edge in the state would make him a solid early favorite.
Delaware (special election)
Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (appointed November 2008, pending Senate resignation by Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. )
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 61.9 percent, McCain 36.9 percent
2008 Senate Race Result: Biden 65.7 percent, Christine O’Donnell (R) 35.3 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): N/A
Biden won his seventh Senate election in November simultaneous to his election as vice president on the ticket headed by Obama. His six-year term will be filled in a two-step process. Kaufman, a lawyer and longtime Biden associate, was appointed in late November by retiring Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to fill the seat when Biden vacates it. But Kaufman clarified that he won’t run in the 2010 special election to fill the final four years of the unexpired term — leading immediately to the presumption that he is keeping the seat warm for Biden’s son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, who currently is serving a tour of duty in Iraq with his Delaware Army National Guard unit. The Kaufman pick disappointed some supporters of Lt. Gov. John Carney, who narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic primary for governor despite Minner’s backing. But Beau Biden would seem a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic Senate nomination if he wants it. Republicans’ hopes hinge on a possible bid by moderate GOP Rep. Michael N. Castle , a former governor and lieutenant governor who just won a ninth term as the state’s sole House member, but who will be 71 in 2010.
Hawaii
Incumbent: Daniel K. Inouye (first elected 1962)
2004 Senate Contest: Inouye 75.5 percent, Cam Cavasso (R) 21.0 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 71.5 percent, McCain 26.4 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Daniel K. Akaka (D) 61.3 percent, Cynthia Thielen (R) 36.8 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,230,922
Hawaii in 2009 will celebrate its 50th anniversary as the 50th state, and Inouye has been a dominant political figure at home since his first Senate election just three years after statehood achieved. He almost certainly will win easily in the strongly Democratic state as long as he wants to serve, so the big question going into the 2010 campaign cycle is whether he’ll seek a ninth term at the age of 86. The other key unknown is whether Linda Lingle , who scored breakthroughs for the state’s typically beleaguered Republicans when she won for governor in 2002 and 2006, would venture a Senate bid in 2010, when the state’s term limit law bars her from seeking re-election again. Chances of Lingle running would likely improve were Inouye to decide to retire. In a state where Democrats hold both U.S. House seats and huge state legislative majorities, the list of possible Democratic candidates should Inouye retire is long.
Illinois
Incumbent: Appointee to be determined (Obama, elected in 2004, vacated the seat after winning election for president)
2004 Senate Contest: Obama 70.0 percent, Alan L. Keyes 27.1 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 61.9 percent, McCain 36.8 percent
2008 Senate Race Result: Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D) 67.8 percent, Steve Sauerberg (R) 28.5 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): N/A
The prospects for the regularly scheduled 2010 Illinois Senate election hinge on who Democratic Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich chooses to fill out the final two years of the term Obama won in 2004. Democrats hold most major statewide offices and majorities in Illinois’ congressional delegation and state legislature, with the list of possible appointees including Reps. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. , Danny K. Davis and Jan Schakowsky , as well as state Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Tammy Duckworth, who after suffering severe injuries serving in Iraq ran a strong but unsuccessful bid for a U.S. House seat in 2006 and now is the state’s veterans affairs director. With so many high-profile figures showing interest in the seat, there is a chance there could be a Democratic primary in February 2010, regardless of who Blagojevich picks. Just the fact that Obama won’t be the Democratic candidate could draw the interest of some serious GOP candidates, but the state’s recent strong Democratic trend in the state could be an inhibiting factor for House members and others who would have to sacrifice their current offices to run.
Indiana
Incumbent: Evan Bayh (first elected 1998)
2004 Senate Contest: Bayh 61.7 percent, Marvin B. Scott (R) 37.2 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 49.9 percent, McCain 49.0 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R) 87.4 percent, Steve Osborne (Libertarian) 12.6 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $10,708,167
Bayh had to overcome Indiana’s historically strong Republican tendencies when he was first elected governor in 1988 at age 33, was re-elected in 1992, then won easy victories for the Senate in 1998 and 2004. A strong state Democratic uptick that began in 2006 – and was capped by Obama’s narrow 2008 win that made him the first presidential candidate of his party to carry Indiana since 1964 — suggests that Bayh should be even more secure in 2010. But the GOP has a fairly deep bench in Indiana, so Bayh is preparing as though he will face a stiff challenge, with nearly $11 million on hold in his campaign account this fall.
Maryland
Incumbent: Barbara A. Mikulski (first elected 1986)
2004 Senate Contest: Mikulski 64.8 percent, E.J. Pipkin (R) 33.7 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 61.9 percent, McCain 36.5 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Benjamin L. Cardin (D) 54.2 percent, Michael S. Steele (R) 44.2 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $766,896
Mikulski, the longest-serving among current women senators, has run away with her four past Senate elections. The 72-year-old incumbent enters the 2010 cycle again as an overwhelming favorite assuming she runs, and she has given no indication that she won’t. She is unlikely to be a prime target for Republican strategists, given that the Republicans have a very thin bench of potentially strong statewide candidates in one of the nation’s most Democratic-dominated states, and are likely to be more focused on a 2010 challenge to Martin O’Malley, the first-term Democratic governor, who is far less entrenched than Mikulski.
Incumbent: Harry Reid (first elected 1986)
2004 Senate Contest: Reid 61.1 percent, Richard Ziser (R) 35.1 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 55.1 percent, McCain 42.7 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. John Ensign (R) 55.4 percent, Jack Carter (D) 41.0 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,754,504
After winning close contests in his first three Senate elections, Reid won by a breakout margin last time, and then gained national prominence in his ongoing role as Senate majority leader. With the Democrats coming off a strong 2008 campaign in which Obama easily won a state that Bush carried twice — and in which the party gained a 2-1 edge in the state’s U.S. House delegation — Reid would appear in strong position to win again in 2010. But a top post also puts its holder in the thick of the Senate’s most contentious fights, which can hurt politically back home, as Democratic leader Tom Daschle learned when he lost his 2004 re-election bid in South Dakota and as Republican leader Mitch McConnell found when he had to stave off an upset bid in Kentucky’s 2008 election. Potential GOP contenders to challenge Reid include Lt. Gov. Brian K. Krolicki; outgoing three-term Rep. Jon Porter , who lost the 2008 race in the 3rd District to Democrat Dina Titus 47 percent to 42 percent; and state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden. One wrinkle with Krolicki: he disclosed last week that the state attorney general’s office plans to indict him over his handling of a multibillion college savings program.
New York
Incumbent: Charles E. Schumer (first elected 1998)
2004 Senate Contest: Schumer 71.2 percent, Howard Mills (R) 24.2 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 62.2 percent, McCain 36.7 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67.0 percent, John Spencer (R) 31.0 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $10,390,016
Schumer will enter his 2010 campaign for a third term coming off a triumphant six-year Senate cycle. The daunting fundraising skills that enabled him to deter serious Republican opposition to his 2004 re-election bid earned him the chairmanship of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, from which he managed the party’s successful efforts to make huge gains in the 2006 and 2008 national Senate campaigns. The big structural Democratic advantage in New York politics, combined with his own campaign cash reserves that already are in the eight figures, make Schumer one of the safest incumbents in the 2010 lineup. With the GOP challenged to find top-tier candidates to run in the 2010 contest for governor and the anticipated Senate special election to fill the seat now held by Secretary of State nominee Clinton, it is extremely unlikely that Schumer will be heavily targeted.
New York (Special election - tentative)
Incumbent: Hillary Rodham Clinton (first elected 2000 — will resign, assuming her nomination by Obama to be secretary of State is confirmed)
2006 Senate Contest: Clinton 67.0 percent, John Spencer (R) 31.0 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 62.2 percent, McCain 36.7 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): N/A
Although the Democratic Party has surged to dominance in New York politics, Clinton’s pending nomination as secretary of State sets the stage for a special election — to fill out the final two years of the term Clinton won in 2006 — that carries some degree of risk for the defending party. In a state composed of a wide range of demographic constituencies and regional interests, Democratic Gov. David A. Paterson must choose carefully in making an interim appointment to the seat, if he is to pick a consensus candidate capable of avoiding a serious special election primary challenge in September 2010, and strong enough to deter the Republicans from staging a competitive challenge that November.
North Dakota
Incumbent: Byron L. Dorgan (first elected 1992)
2004 Senate Contest: Dorgan 68.3 percent, Mike Liffrig (R) 31.8 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: McCain 53.3 percent, Obama 44.6 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Kent Conrad (D) 68.8 percent, Dwight Grotberg (R) 29.5 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,457,514
North Dakota has long presented a political anomaly. It is conservative-leaning state that historically is one of the Republican Party’s most consistent strongholds in presidential contests, but an underlying populism in the politics of the largely rural state has helped the Democrats to hold both Senate seats and the state’s only House seat simultaneously since the 1986 elections. In recent years, Republicans have failed to recruit a top-tier candidate for any of the state’s seats in Congress. So GOP officials, as they seek to present a serious challenge to Dorgan, are sure to make a recruiting pitch to popular Republican Gov. John Hoeven , who easily won his 2008 bid for a third term. Dorgan, though, has secured his long career by establishing himself as a tribune for working-class North Dakotans, and he has focused on state issues as chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee on energy and water issues.
Oregon
Incumbent: Ron Wyden (first elected 1996)
2004 Senate Contest: Wyden 63.4 percent, Al King (R) 31.8 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 56.8 percent, McCain 40.4 percent
2008 Senate Race Result: Jeff Merkley (D) 48.9 percent, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 45.6 percent (Democratic takeover)
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,233,021
Wyden represented liberal-leaning Portland in the House for 15 years prior to his 1996 special election victory, and Republicans early in his Senate career tried to portray him as too far left. But Wyden’s numerous efforts to work across party lines to fashion consensus solutions — including on improving the health care system, one of his top agenda items — helped him expand his base and settle into political security even before the Democrats’ recent surge in Oregon, as seen in Obama’s near-landslide presidential victory in 2008. Some Republicans might hope for a comeback bid by Smith, who lost that 1996 special election to Wyden before winning his Senate seat in a regular election later that year. But that would require quite a turnabout by Smith: He cited his close working relationship with Wyden so often in his ultimately failed 2008 re-election campaign that Wyden, who had endorsed Democratic challenger Merkley, asked him publicly to desist.
Vermont
Incumbent: Patrick J. Leahy (first elected 1974)
2004 Senate Contest: Leahy 70.6 percent, John “Jack” McMullen (R) 24.5 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 67.4 percent, McCain 30.4 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Bernard Sanders (I) 65.4 percent, Rich Tarrant (R) 32.4 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $1,203,127
When Leahy, now rounding out his sixth term, was first elected to the Senate in 1974, it was a big breakthrough for the Democrats in Vermont, then still regarded as a traditional bastion of “Yankee Republicanism.” The state has since undergone a profound conversion to a Democratic stronghold, which reached a new peak with Obama’s landslide victory for the state’s three electoral votes. Leahy has coasted to re-election in each of his past two races. The Republicans’ only realistic hope for a serious challenge would be a bid by Jim Douglas , who in 2008 won his fourth two-year term as governor. But Douglas lost the 1992 Senate race to Leahy, suffering his only defeat in a Vermont political career that dates back to 1972.
Washington
Incumbent: Patty Murray (first elected 1992)
2004 Senate Contest: Murray 55.0 percent, George Nethercutt (R) 42.7 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 57.7 percent, McCain 40.5 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 56.9 percent, Mike McGavick (R) 39.9 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,056,181
Murray made it to the U.S. Senate after six years on her local school board and four in the state Senate. Republicans initially tried to portray as a fluke her first Senate win in 1992 — “the year of the woman” — so called because of big gains made that year by women candidates. But Murray easily fended off challenges by Republican House veterans in 1998 and 2004, and will run for re-election in 2010 as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Not that long ago, Washington was one of the nation’s premier swing states, but a long-developing Democratic advantage appears to have solidified.
Wisconsin
Incumbent: Russ Feingold (first elected 1992)
2004 Senate Contest: Feingold 55.4 percent, Tim Michels (R) 44.1 percent
2008 Presidential Race Result: Obama 56.2 percent, McCain 42.3 percent
2006 Senate Race Result: Sen. Herb Kohl (D) 67.3 percent, Robert Gerald Lorge (R) 44.1 percent
Incumbent Campaign Cash on Hand (as of Sept. 30, 2008): $2,427,262
Feingold, throughout his Senate career, has positioned himself as something of a political outsider, whose contrarian views led him to join Arizona Sen. McCain in pursuing the overhaul of campaign finance laws that bears their name. He also cast the only Senate vote against the measure known as the Patriot Act because he believed civil liberties were eroded by its provisions aimed at detecting terrorism suspects. This posture has earned him enough respect to win three Senate terms, but never by overwhelming margins: his 11-point edge over an unheralded Republican challenger in 2004 was his strongest showing yet. Feingold nonetheless heads into 2010 off a 2008 election that saw Obama trounce McCain in Wisconsin, a longtime swing state that Democratic nominee John Kerry carried by just four-tenths of a percentage point in 2004. Feingold also benefits from the fact that only one potential Republican challenger, state Attorney General John Byron “J.B.” Van Hollen, currently holds a statewide office. Rep. Paul D. Ryan , who just won a sixth House term at the age of 38, is widely viewed as a GOP rising star, but has signaled he is focusing his statewide ambitions on a run for the state’s other Senate seat in 2012 should four-term Democrat Kohl retire.
Bob Benenson, Greg Giroux, Rachel Kapochunas, Marie Horrigan, Emily Cadei, Jessica Benton Cooney, Lauren Phillips and Michael Teitelbaum contributed to this story.