Redistricting

Among other things, Joan talked about Colorado politics, redistricting and the importance of the work America Votes partners are doing in Colorado and across the country.

Labor Day weekend and the "traditional campaign season" have arrived and the national landscape is as rough, if not rougher, than before Washington went on August vacation. The overall environment clearly must improve over the next 61 days - we'll do it with consistent messages reminding voters of the clear choice in this election, that their deep concerns are the result of conservatives' failed policies, and that our opponents are outright extremists whose plan to privatize Social Security is the tip of the iceberg.

However, the most important dynamic in this election may not be the national mood or generic ballot, but the specific political environments in a number of key states. Look at the heavy concentration of defeated Democrats and Republicans in a handful of states in 1994 and 2006, the two "wave" mid-term elections in the last 20 years. In midterms, when things went bad nationally, they went really, really bad in a few states.

In the 1994 landslide, seven states accounted for over half of all losses by House Democratic incumbents (CA, GA, IN, NC, OH, TX and WA - 19 of 34 losses). In the 2006 election that won back a Democratic majority, 60 percent of Republican incumbent losses were in just five states (CT, IN, NH, NY and PA - 13 of 22 losses). Importantly, Republicans lost races for governor in Pennsylvania, New York and New Hampshire four years ago by an average of 35 points.

How is this history relevant to our 2010 strategy? In the most recent Cook Political rankings, half of the Democratic-held House seats rated as "Toss Up" were concentrated in seven states (FL, IL, MI, NH, OH, PA and VA - 18 of 37 seats). All of these states are also top redistricting control priorities in the November election. Cook rates gubernatorial races in FL, IL, OH and PA as "Toss-Ups" and the MI and NH legislatures are key redistricting control targets. (Virginia's races for governor and legislature were in 2009).

America Votes' strategy this year puts the highest priority on the states and districts where vital races are layered, up and down the ballot. America Votes' Redistricting Control Project and many of our coalition partners' programs represent a firewall to fight back on the ground. It's a plan designed for tough environments like this one - find the turf we must defend and build programs to forcefully beat back the rising tide.

Bottom line: there of course must be improvement in the national landscape or we're in for an election as bad as 1994 was for us and 2006 was for them. But final margins in Congress in 2011, perhaps through 2012, and other priorities may hinge upon our success over the next 61 days in winning back swing voters and mobilizing progressives in places like Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH) and Delaware County, PA.

Speaking specifically about the process of redistricting, Joan commented, "When it [redistricting] is done correctly, it should maximize the impact of one man one vote, you redistrict to make sure no congressional district is larger than another... It also groups people with common interest-like belonging to a rural or agricultural area."

As a former State Senator, Joan has firsthand experience with the redistricting process. While a state senator, Joan had a district that "spanned the continental divide." She said that she had to make sure that both parts of her district received a representative that could serve their needs. In 2001, the State Senante couldn't agree with the Republican House and the governor at the time, so they went to court. Then in 2003, there was a second attempt to redistrict CO that gave Joan even more insight into how the redistricting process worked and impacted citizens.

Describing how redistricting can effect working citizens, Joan said, "If working people get put into a district that will be represented by someone who can never represent their interest, then they will not be able to effectively lobby for themselves and they will be a minority in that district."

Listen to the full interview here.

Over the past few weeks, there has been a definite increase in the attention that the media has given to redistricting, and the effects it may have on this year's elections.  One of the latest stories comes from David Bass for The American Spectator, highlighting the potential pitfalls of a poor showing from the Democrats this year:

"By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade - a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections. ... With about a dozen of the nation's state legislatures closely split along partisan lines and 18 governor's races in the "toss up" category this year, big changes could be in store"

Read the full article here.

I have just returned from an epic trip to Las Vegas, NV! Usually when talking about a Vegas trip, I would stop here. But, while in Vegas this time, I attended Netroots Nation 2010. The conference, which lasted from July 22 to July 25, was the perfect forum for progressives to learn, discuss, experience, debate, and prepare for the upcoming elections this November.

Since redistricting is one of our main focuses here at America Votes, I want to share with you some relevant things I learned at Netroots. Specifically, I took in the Redistricting Panel, which featured State Senator Steven Horsford, a DLCC Board Member and the Majority Leader of the Nevada Senate, Executive Director Bill Burke of the Foundation for the Future, and Michael Sargeant, Executive Director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The panel provided important information about redistricting and went into depth about the importance of investing resources into this process. The full panel can be viewed here.

This panel has led to more discussion about redistricting. Paul Rosenberg at Open Left discussed his thoughts on the panel and what he thinks are the most important points on the redistricting subject for Democrats in the 2010 election.

I am very glad this successful panel was held at Netroots. Redistricting is an extremely important issue that absolutely needs to be picked up by the blogger community. Netroots was the perfect catalyst.

In addition to the redistricting, there were of course fantastic keynote speakers, fun social events, and a lot of excitement. The rest of what happened in Vegas, though, stays in Vegas.

Jim Provance wrote a great article for the Toledo Blade highlighting how competitive the Ohio House of Representatives will be, and how tough it will be for Democrats to maintain their 53-46 majority. What the article doesn’t mention is that the reason it is so important for Dems to retain their legislative majority (and re-elect Ted Strickland) is that the House will play a very important role in the redistricting process, one that will almost certainly eliminate one to two Congressional seats from the Ohio delegation. It is just another reminder why down ballot races will prove to be so important this November.

In today's Politico, former President of America Votes and former Representative Martin Frost (D-TX) writes about the importance of down-ballot races in November to the redistricting process:

Read the full piece here.

Perhaps two of the most underreported aspects of the 2010 midterm elections are the numerous races for control of Governors' Mansions and State Legislatures across the country. While, the mainstream media has focused primarily on whether Democrats can maintain control of Congress, in many states the party that controls state legislatures and governorships will control the redistricting process. And as America Votes Executive Director Greg Speed has written, controlling the redistricting process can mean sending more representatives from your party to Congress. Thus far, the national media has largely ignored redistricting, but many donors and national organizations have made it one of their primary focuses.

The latest example comes from Ohio, where The Hill's Sean Miller reports that the AFL-CIO and other labor groups are putting their focus squarely on the Governor's race between incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland and Republican challenger John Kasich. Why? In a word, redistricting.

"But there's added significance to the governor's race because the office plays a powerful role in the redistricting process, which takes place after the 2010 Census is completed in December. Ohio is expected to lose up to two of its 18 seats because of a population decline, which means the governor's office and the General Assembly will be grappling over how to redraw the state's House boundaries."

That's why out of a bevy of important and competitive races throughout the Buckeye State, the governor's race might the most important out of all of them.

While 2008 was a transformative election about hope and change for America, this election cycle is just as important, if not more important. 2010 centers on a boring, technical process that in many states will determine the political map over the next 10 years. Beyond that, it will drive policy for the next decade as well. That process is called redistricting.

After the completion of the 2010 Census this fall, states will begin the redistricting process. That means the victors of the 2010 election will be responsible for redrawing districts.

The political importance of this process is evident through the large contributions from donors on both sides of the aisle to governors groups. Even in tough economic times, governors groups are breaking record fundraising numbers. An article in the WSJ notes that the Republican Governors Association raised $28 million and the Democratic Governors Association raised $17 million in the first half of 2010.

Donors realize that they are making a long term investment in America's political structure by contributing to these races because in many states where state legislatures control the redistricting process, governors get the final sign off.
The 2010 elections are nowhere near as sexy as the 2008 election. But, their long-term influence on the political structure of our country will be greater than the 2008 election that captivated a nation.